Analysis of Thursday's Trades:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Thursday, with no compelling reasons for this movement. The US dollar has been rising out of inertia, while the fundamental or macroeconomic basis for such movement raises serious questions. While there were sufficient reasons for the decline of the British currency this week, the euro has none. The dollar's strength can be attributed to a few less significant US reports that indeed came in better than expected. However, only the unemployment claims report was published yesterday, and the dollar rose by another 50 pips even before its release. Thus, the current movements can only be explained by technical factors, primarily on lower timeframes. On the hourly timeframe, we see a downward trend supported by a descending channel. The price is moving within this channel. Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, a global upward trend persists.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, only one trading signal was formed on Thursday. During the American trading session, the pair reacted and bounced off the 1.1745-1.1754 range. The rise in quotes after this signal was very weak, and the price reached the indicated area following a sell signal generated on Wednesday around 1.1830-1.1837.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, a downward correction remains, which may soon transform into an upward trend. At the beginning of 2026, a long-term upward trend resumed, so we are expecting new growth for the euro. The overall fundamental backdrop remains very challenging for the US dollar, so we fully support further movement upward.

On Friday, beginner traders can consider new short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1745-1.1754 area, targeting the 1.1655-1.1666 area. A rebound from the area of 1.1745-1.1754 would allow for the opening of long positions targeting 1.1830-1.1837.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include: 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, 1.2092-1.2104. Today, interesting indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for February will be released in the Eurozone and Germany. In the US, there will also be business activity indices, along with the core PCE index, fourth-quarter preliminary GDP, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and personal income and spending data for American consumers. With so much news, volatility may be high today.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.