D. Trump again promises the end of the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iran's control. Should these statements be believed, or is this just maneuvering in a situation of zugzwang toward the inevitability of a ground operation, for which the US is, in fact, practically ready?

The American president remains the main newsmaker in the world, whose statements not only stimulate escalation of the Middle East war but also manipulate the dynamics of all financial markets without exception.

Thus, yesterday he said he was ready to stop the war even if control of the Strait of Hormuz remained with Tehran. This news prompted speculators to locally take profits in oil futures, the dollar, and, above all, the local, American stock market. But reality again asserts itself. The military buildup around the gulf continues, which clearly indicates the reality of the start of a military operation. The question is, of course, what form it will take and where.

Of course, market participants understand the hopelessness of this situation, the American mentality of always and everywhere winning, and also the psychology of the president himself, who is sometimes called a liar in the US.

Of course, the uncertainty factor affects the markets and will contribute to extremely high volatility. But, if the Americans start a military operation, one can expect a sharp rise in oil and gold prices. The dollar may also receive support in these conditions on the wave of purchases of US Treasury bonds. For now, most likely, we will observe a period of consolidation.

As for the prospects for the US dollar, the labor market reports to be published this week may play an important role, first tomorrow from ADP and then on Friday from the Labor Department. It is assumed that the reports will again show an unflattering picture, which, in other circumstances, would have been an important signal for the resumption of rate cuts to stimulate the US economy.

Another important signal to markets was yesterday's statement by Fed Chair J. Powell, who said that longer-term inflation expectations appear to be under control, despite the war-triggered spike in oil prices that has created inflationary pressure, including on rate prospects. The central bank's "wait and see" policy was justified.

This is an important statement, which will be the basis for extremely cautious actions by market participants. For now, markets assume that inflation may jump significantly this month, but if everything turns out differently than expected, the prospect of a rate cut this year will only strengthen. This news may already have a negative impact on the dollar, weakening it despite the Middle East crisis.

What can be expected in the market today?

I believe activity in the markets will gradually decline amid expectations of two most important factors — the risk of the start of a US ground operation and the publication of US employment reports.

Forecast for the day:

#CL

The price of the US crude grade is trading above the support level of 101.00; escalation of the crisis in the Middle East may lead to a local surge in price to 120.00 dollars per barrel. The level for buying may be at 104.00.

GOLD

Spot gold is trading below the 4602.00 level. Escalation of the crisis may again support demand for gold, and on that wave it may jump to 4850.00. A level for buying it could be 4631.65.