The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement throughout Thursday, but the completion of this movement is still far off. Let us remind you that we forecast a rise in the British currency when it was trading around 1.3200. The GBP/USD pair has been in a sideways channel for an entire year on the daily and weekly timeframes. Hence, a price drop to the lower boundary of the channel indicates that we should expect movement towards the upper boundary. Some traders might argue that the flat could have concluded with a breach of the lower boundary of the sideways channel. It could have. However, in this case, the dollar would have had to show much stronger growth than it has demonstrated in 2026. Based on what factors should it appreciate in the long term? The only support factor this year has been geopolitics, and it has an expiration date.

Thus, even without the Treasury's decision to increase the volume of long-term bond buybacks (a form of QE), we expected further declines in the American currency. We would also like to note that the flat on the weekly timeframe will eventually end. As we have already established, the dollar has no long-term prospects. Therefore, over the next few years, it will only continue to fall. Alternatively, the flat may persist for some time, but for this to happen, the dollar again needs growth factors, as the pair approaches the upper boundary of the channel at 1.3150-1.3780. This implies that, in the absence of a breakout of this boundary, movement towards the lower boundary should commence.

We would also like to remind you that the Bank of England's monetary policy could be "more hawkish" than the Federal Reserve's in the second half of this year. For some reason, the market has completely forgotten that Donald Trump consistently demands a reduction in the key interest rate, and Kevin Warsh is his protege and "one of his people." Of course, Warsh cannot force the Monetary Committee to vote as he believes they should. However, no one will deny that he clearly has some influence over other FOMC officials. Furthermore, no influence is required at present. Non-Farm Payrolls have been falling for four consecutive months. And not just falling; they are already below the "waterline" — the zero mark. This means we are not simply talking about a slowing pace of job creation, but rather the absence of new jobs. We believe that with the current state of the labor market, the Fed has absolutely legitimate grounds not to raise the key interest rate.

The more the American economy falters, the more reasons there will be to lower the key rate and overlook inflation. At the same time, Trump does not hang over the BoE, and should inflation rise, it will easily raise the key rate. Thus, we believe that if any tightening is expected, it will come from the BoE rather than the Fed. This article, along with the one on EUR/USD, aims to provide a comprehensive answer to the question: what awaits the dollar moving forward? The question is not even whether the euro and the pound have grounds to continue rising. These currencies will rise because the dollar will fall.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 66 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Friday, August 21, we thus expect movement within the range bounded by levels 1.3566 and 1.3698. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating an upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area for the third time, which again warns of a potential correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3611

S2 – 1.3550

S3 – 1.3489

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3672

R2 – 1.3733

R3 – 1.3794

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair retains its upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the American currency to appreciate in the long term. The year 2026 is currently shaping up to be super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every fairy tale must come to an end. A flat persists on the weekly timeframe between levels 1.3150 and 1.3780, within a four-year upward trend, suggesting continued medium-term growth for the British currency. Long positions with targets of 1.3672 and 1.3698 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, bearish trading can occur, with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3428.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings: 20, 0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel within which the pair will operate over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility metrics.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal is nearing in the opposite direction.