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11.09.2026 05:59 AM
The EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday moved in a completely different direction than expected. We understand that the European Central Bank's decision to raise key rates was known for a long time, so the market could have priced it in in advance. But in recent weeks, the euro has not shown significant growth, while the ECB is tightening monetary policy for the second time. Thus, we believe the euro should have continued its ascent yesterday if the market had not twice disregarded the European Union's tightening of policy. Unfortunately, traders now see only the Federal Reserve and its rate hike that is expected next week. Whether it will happen or not remains an open question. Despite improvements in the US labor market, we still doubt the Fed's readiness to raise the rate. Inflation may continue to rise in the coming months, but is Kevin Warsh ready to "approve" monetary tightening? Recall that Donald Trump intends to give every US citizen $5,000 if the Republican Party wins the election. This could mean billions of dollars flooding the markets and accelerating inflation. Is there any point in fighting inflation if the US president's decisions only accelerate it?
In technical terms, the pair settled below the Ichimoku indicator lines and the trend line. Thus, a new downtrend may begin on the hourly TF. If today's inflation shows a higher reading, and the Fed decides to tighten policy next week, the dollar will receive serious support. However, traders will have to ignore other factors that speak against the dollar. This has not been a problem recently.
On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, three trading signals were formed. All — after the ECB meeting, when the market experienced a "mini-storm." Therefore, the signals were chaotic, and it is hard to call the euro's decline logical.
The latest COT report is dated September 1. The weekly TF chart clearly shows that non-commercial traders' net position turned "bearish" and significantly decreased in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been selling the euro in favor of the US dollar for the past six months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar acted for a while as a "reserve currency."
However, we still do not see any fundamental factors for further strengthening of the US currency. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when that factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to normal. And the shelf life may already have expired. In the long term, the euro can fall even to 1.08$ (trend line), but the uptrend will remain relevant. During the past months of dollar strength, the pair has not moved close to that line.
The placement of the red and blue indicator lines indicates an approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions for the "Non-commercial" group increased by 4,500, while the number of shorts decreased by 6,900. Accordingly, the net position increased by 11,400 contracts.
On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD reversed lower. The ECB should have supported the euro, since it raised rates for the second time in 2026, but the market now sees only the Fed and its policy tightening. Thus, from nothing, a new trend can form, but everything will depend on US inflation and the Fed's decision.
For September 11 we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362-1.1368, 1.1461-1.1473, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1665, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1623) and the Kijun-sen (1.1623). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so account for this when determining trading signals. Do not forget to move the stop-loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.
On Friday, Christine Lagarde will give another speech in the European Union, and the US will publish the notorious inflation report. We expect volatility to be elevated today, but higher than its average over the past one and a half months.
Traders today may consider short positions targeting 1.1585 if the price bounces off the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. Consolidation above these lines will allow opening long positions targeting 1.1657-1.1665. Volatility may be higher than usual today.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
