The EUR/USD pair continued its decline throughout Tuesday, first consolidating below the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1830 and then back above it. Thus, today the upward movement may continue toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1889. A new consolidation below 1.1830 would once again favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1770.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the new downward wave did not break the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains bullish. The bulls have taken a short pause within a large-scale offensive that would have been impossible without Donald Trump. Trump has pushed tensions in the world and within the United States to the limit, and markets continue to respond by fleeing the risky U.S. currency with uncertain economic prospects.

On Tuesday, the news background was fairly weak. Traders paid no attention to inflation in Germany, and the ZEW Institute's economic sentiment indices were reacted to only formally. In the second half of the day, the weekly ADP report was released in the U.S., but traders do not always react even to the monthly ADP data, preferring Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Thus, European and American statistics had virtually no impact on the pair's movements. Later in the day, it became known that a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran took place in Geneva. Following the meeting of the Iranian and American delegations, it can be said that some progress was achieved. Tehran agreed to halt its uranium enrichment program for three years and to allow part of the already enriched nuclear fuel to be removed from the country. In my view, the progress is very limited, as Washington is demanding complete nuclear disarmament. Donald Trump's reaction to the Geneva talks remains unknown. Nevertheless, this is still a step toward de-escalation of the conflict.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1919 and fell toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1813. A rebound from 1.1813 would favor the euro and a renewed rise toward 1.1919. A consolidation below 1.1813 would allow traders to expect a continued decline toward 1.1748 and 1.1694. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional players opened 16,403 long positions and closed 541 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 319,000, while short positions amount to 138,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing longs. Then a "shutdown" began, but now we observe the same pattern again: professional traders continue to build up long positions. Donald Trump's policy remains the most significant factor for traders, as it creates numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for America. For example, a serious deterioration of the labor market (in 2025) and a decline in global reputation. Traders are also concerned about the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Change in Building Permits (13:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in Durable Goods Orders (13:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Housing Starts (13:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Industrial Production (14:15 UTC).

On February 18, the economic calendar contains four entries, two of which can be highlighted with some reservation. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be present, but in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling opportunities were available after an hourly close below 1.1889, targeting 1.1830. The target was reached. New selling opportunities will arise after a close below 1.1830 with a target of 1.1770. Buying opportunities will become possible upon a rebound from 1.1830 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1889.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1919–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.