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The GBP/USD pair demonstrated a significant drop on Tuesday, which frankly speaking, it did not deserve. The only negative factor for the British pound that day was the UK unemployment report, which unexpectedly jumped to 5.2%. This negative development led to a 130-pip decline during the day, and the pound only recovered slightly in the evening. The other British reports were of no significance to traders, and the British pound has been declining for an entire week, often without substantial grounds. Today, the pound will face another test of strength. In a couple of hours, the UK inflation report will be published. If this indicator turns out to have slowed significantly in January, the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its next meeting will effectively equal 100%. At the same time, this factor has already caused the pound to fall for an entire week. Therefore, we wouldn't be surprised to see a rise rather than a fall.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Tuesday, but on Monday, the price had already formed a sell signal in the area of 1.3643-1.3652, which we advised carrying over to the next day. This signal allowed beginner traders to make a good profit. During the day, the price first broke through the 1.3529-1.3543 range in one direction, then in the other. The last buy signal could also have been acted upon and carried over to the next day.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has broken the downward trend and... formed a new one. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so we expect the global upward trend from 2025 to continue, which could push the pair to the 1.4000 mark. In recent weeks, the situation has often not favored the British currency, and the market, after several active weeks in mid-January, has again fallen into a state of stagnation.
On Wednesday, beginner traders may remain in long positions, as the pair has passed through the 1.3529-1.3543 area, targeting 1.3643-1.3652. A consolidation below the area of 1.3529-1.3543 will allow for opening shorts with a target of 1.3484-1.3489.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to trade include 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3365, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3741-1.3751, 1.3814-1.3832, 1.3891-1.3912, and 1.3975.
On Wednesday, a report on January inflation is scheduled for publication in the UK, a key event of the day. In the U.S., there are only a few secondary reports, which, however, may also provoke a reaction.