See also
The EUR/USD currency pair continued to swing wildly back and forth. Neither currency has shown clear growth, but it's important to understand that the markets are currently in chaos. Trying to profit from chaos is not the best decision. It is better to wait for the markets to stabilize, although it is difficult to predict when that will occur. We're not discouraging anyone from opening trades or claiming it's impossible to make money right now. However, our reviews always stress that market movements should be technical, understandable, and explainable. If the price changes direction five times a day, news comes out every hour, and volatility hits 200 pips, can such movements be considered understandable and predictable?
On Monday, two reports (on retail sales in the EU and industrial production in Germany) were published in the Eurozone. It hardly needs to be said that they had no chance of influencing the EUR/USD pair's movement from the outset. On Monday—which many have already dubbed "Black Monday"—all markets collapsed again, causing chaos, panic, and turmoil. Amid everything happening globally, traders weren't interested in Germany's industrial output.
We haven't marked any trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe for the second day. There's no point, as the price constantly changes direction, ignoring all technical levels and lines. In our view, waiting until there is at least a minor emotional cooldown is advisable. However, that will only be possible once the tariff situation reaches some level of stability—when Trump stops imposing, canceling, or suspending tariffs. We also need to wait for all U.S. trading partners (if they can still be called that) to make their counter-decisions, after which it will become clearer what actions Trump plans to take in response. It's unlikely we'll see calm market movements anytime soon.
The latest COT report is dated April 1. As shown in the chart, the net position of non-commercial traders remained bullish for a long time. The bears barely managed to gain control briefly, but now the bulls are back in charge. The bears' advantage has faded fast since Trump took office, and the dollar has since plunged. We cannot say definitively that the dollar's decline will continue, and the COT reports reflect sentiment among major players, which can shift quickly in today's environment.
We still see no fundamental factors supporting euro strength—but one decisive factor for dollar weakness has emerged. The correction may last for weeks or even months, but a 16-year downward trend isn't going to end so quickly.
The red and blue lines have crossed again, indicating a bullish market trend. During the latest reporting week, the number of long positions in the "non-commercial" group fell by 6,500, while short positions increased by 7,100. As a result, the net position declined by 13,600 contracts.
The EUR/USD pair quickly resumed its upward movement in the hourly time frame when Trump began implementing new tariffs. We believe that a medium-term decline will eventually resume due to the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed. However, it's unclear how long the market will continue to price in the "Trump factor" alone. Currently, panic and chaos dominate the markets, so if we previously refrained from making price movement forecasts, we do so even more now. Our only recommendation is to wait until the "crisis" either passes or at least begins to subside.
For April 8, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0461, 1.0524, 1.0585, 1.0658–1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0797) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0963). Remember that Ichimoku indicator lines can shift during the day, which must be factored in when identifying trading signals. Also, don't forget to move the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will help protect against potential losses if the signal is false.
No significant macroeconomic events or data releases are scheduled in the Eurozone or the U.S. on Tuesday. However, that doesn't mean there won't be news from Trump, who is reportedly considering a 90-day suspension of tariffs. Therefore, we could be in for the next episode of the series "The New World Order and Its Consequences."
You have already liked this post today
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
Thursday Trade Review: GBP/USD, 1H Chart On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement, mirroring the EUR/USD pair. The behavior of these two major currency pairs was nearly identical
EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish decline, completely ignoring the fundamental backdrop. As a reminder, this week Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting both
Wednesday Trade Analysis: GBP/USD – 1H Chart On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also stuck in a flat movement, with very low volatility. There were virtually no price movements during
Wednesday Trade Analysis: EUR/USD – 1H Chart On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade in line with the prevailing trend from the previous week. Market activity was minimal throughout
On Wednesday, GBP/USD remained within its descending channel. However, a more interesting setup emerged in the 4-hour time frame, where the price attempted several times to break through the Senkou
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued moving within a weak downward channel, as previously forecast. However, volatility dropped to a minimum, there was no macroeconomic backdrop for the third consecutive
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair continued its moderate downward movement, which is clearly of a technical and corrective nature. On both Monday and Tuesday, there were no significant macroeconomic events
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its mild downward movement in line with the prevailing trend. After a fairly strong upward move, the market began a correction. The nature
InstaTrade
PAMM accounts
Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.
If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.
Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?
Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.
We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.