Today, only the euro produced a valid setup through the Mean Reversion strategy, but even there, a proper reversal movement ultimately failed to materialize. I did not open any trades using the Momentum strategy.

The euro, the pound, and other risk-sensitive assets are trading relatively cautiously against the dollar, as there are currently no real catalysts for sharp market movements. The euro completely ignored today's ECB report and demonstrated remarkable stability, although the European regulator's conclusions regarding financial stability in May 2026 leave much to be desired. Apparently, the market has already absorbed and priced in the majority of the negative information contained in the report. The key message voiced by ECB officials is that risks to the eurozone's financial stability remain elevated. This did not come as a surprise to market participants, but rather confirmed the existing and fairly pessimistic assessment of the current situation.

Upcoming economic releases are expected to become the key reference points for financial markets during the second half of the day. Traders will pay particular attention to the release of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which serves as an important gauge of business activity in one of the key industrial regions of the United States. The report is expected to provide an updated assessment of the manufacturing sector, its trends, and its outlook.

Alongside the manufacturing activity indicator, markets will closely monitor speeches by influential Federal Open Market Committee members Lorie K. Logan and Lisa D. Cook. The tone and key messages delivered by these officials may serve as an indicator of the Committee's current stance regarding future monetary policy. In particular, emphasis on inflation risks or, conversely, on the need to support economic growth could shape market expectations.

In the event of strong economic data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows no reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1659 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1678 and 1.1698;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1635 may lead to euro weakness toward 1.1609 and 1.1585;

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3450 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3475 and 1.3507;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3425 may lead to pound weakness toward 1.3390 and 1.3344;

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.45 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.60 and 159.85;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.25 may trigger dollar selling toward 159.00 and 158.80;

Mean Reversion Strategy for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1654 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1634 followed by a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3463 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3437 followed by a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.7162 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.7127 followed by a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3837 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3809 followed by a return above this level.