Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1617 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 20 points.

Weak eurozone PMI data put pressure on the euro, which buyers managed to absorb confidently. The eurozone Manufacturing PMI declined, as did activity in the services sector. This may indicate a slowdown in economic growth in the region, which in turn negatively affects the euro's attractiveness. However, it is important to note that PMI readings are leading indicators, and the latest data may be influenced by temporary factors such as seasonality or short-term supply chain disruptions. Final May figures will be released in June.

Later in the second half of the day, investors will closely watch key US macroeconomic data, which may significantly impact the US dollar. First in line are weekly initial jobless claims. Historically, a decline in this indicator signals a strengthening labor market and, consequently, positive economic trends. A positive release could support further strengthening of the US currency. Following the unemployment data, building permits figures will be published. This indicator is an important leading measure of construction sector activity, which in turn has a significant impact on related industries and employment levels. An increase in building permits would be interpreted as a sign of recovery or active growth in the construction sector, which should also support the dollar.

Reports on leading indices will also be important, as they provide insight into the state of the manufacturing and services sectors.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered at a price around 1.1631 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1659. At 1.1659, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A euro rise today is only possible after weak US data. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1601 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward 1.1631 and 1.1659 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1601 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1570, where I will exit and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure is expected to return on strong US data. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1631 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1601 and 1.1570 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – target price (Take Profit level), where further growth is considered unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – target price (Take Profit level), where further decline is considered unlikely
• MACD indicator – entry decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper risk management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions is, from the outset, a losing intraday trading strategy.