Today, Tuesday, gold (XAU/USD) is facing selling pressure for the second consecutive day, with bears seeking to push the price below the $4,300 level. The hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to support the dollar and is a key factor behind capital outflows from the "yellow metal."

The updated Federal Reserve forecast (Summary of Economic Projections) showed that officials expect at least one more interest rate hike this year. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem have explicitly spoken in favor of further monetary policy tightening, as inflation risks remain high amid a surge in commodity prices.

At the same time, crude oil prices are showing a moderate recovery after falling to a two-week low, once again raising inflation concerns and pushing up U.S. government bond yields.

This is keeping the dollar near its September high, the highest level since late July, and putting pressure on precious metal prices.

In addition, on Monday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it would change the geography of the conflict if the United States further escalates tensions. The United States, in turn, is increasing economic pressure on Iran, stating that Iranian airlines could be barred from international flights from September 23. The escalation of hostilities between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia is also maintaining a geopolitical risk premium, contributing to a moderate rise in oil prices and supporting the dollar.

This suggests that a decline remains the most likely scenario for gold, increasing the probability of a further price decline during the day. However, the downward potential is limited, as traders are awaiting new developments regarding the crisis in the Middle East and assessments of their impact on inflation. This could affect interest rate expectations and the dynamics of precious metal prices.

In addition, market participants will be closely watching the important meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for Thursday.

Statements from influential members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will also affect the U.S. dollar exchange rate and the price of gold. The fundamental backdrop points to the possibility of a return in the precious metal price to the September low.

From a technical perspective, in the short term, XAU/USD is showing a moderately bearish bias while remaining below the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently at $4,360 and is limiting further upside. At the same time, the $4,300 level is providing some support. Momentum indicators remain inconclusive: the Relative Strength Index (RSI, period 14) fluctuated near the neutral level of 48.81, while the MACD indicator is at zero, showing a decline in negative momentum. This indicates that selling pressure is weakening, but does not yet signal a sustained recovery.

Nevertheless, a break below $4,300 would open the way toward the September low.