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20.08.2026 05:14 AM
The GBP/USD pair showed a fairly strong upward movement on Wednesday, which aligns with the current technical picture and may also have been a consequence of the UK inflation report. We are not certain that the market's vigorous reaction was specifically due to the inflation report, but it did provide formal grounds for buying the British pound. Inflation in the UK rose to 2.9%, while core inflation stood at 2.6% (above forecasts). The figures were not the most significant, but they supported buying of the British pound, as the Bank of England may now be more "hawkish" than before. However, even without the consumer price index, the British currency could and should continue to rise. It is worth reminding once again that nearly all factors currently indicate a decline for the American currency. Both local and global upward trends are present on the highest timeframes.
In the 5-minute timeframe, three not-so-strong buy signals were generated on Wednesday, and even they could have generated profits for novice traders. Unfortunately, the first buy signal was not formed at the very start of the "flight." However, breaking above the range of 1.3587-1.3598 also allowed for opening long positions. A rebound from the area of 1.3631-1.3641 prompted closing of longs and opening of short positions. A rebound from the area of 1.3587-1.3598 allows for considering longs again.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward trend. In our view, the British pound should continue to rise, even if local factors do not provide support. The weekly timeframe continues to move from the lower boundary of the sideways channel toward the upper boundary, and this movement is not yet complete. The market's belief in a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is rapidly diminishing, as recent U.S. macroeconomic data has pressured the dollar. Only a consolidation below the upward channel on the hourly timeframe will suggest a potential decline for the pair.
On Thursday, novice traders can open shorts if the price consolidates below the 1.3587-1.3598 range, targeting 1.3456-1.3476. Longs can be opened with targets at 1.3631-1.3641 and 1.3695 if price rebounds from the 1.3587-1.3598 area.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered for trading: 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. No important events or publications are scheduled for Thursday in either the UK or the U.S., so traders will have little to react to throughout the day. However, the growth of the British currency may continue today. Traders will have to rely on pure technical analysis.
Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.
Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
