Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1696 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 17 points.

The upcoming release of U.S. inflation data—following the outbreak of the military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran—will attract heightened attention. Data on the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected, along with its core version excluding food and energy. In addition, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and data on future inflation expectations will be published. Particular focus will be placed on the core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy—especially important in the current geopolitical environment. The University of Michigan survey results will also be significant, reflecting consumers' perception of current economic conditions and their expectations for future price dynamics.

Only a significant deviation from forecasts is likely to harm the EUR/USD upward trend at the end of the week, as market attention is currently focused on peace negotiations regarding the Middle East situation.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1722 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1759. At 1.1759, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Growth in the euro today is only likely in the case of very weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1697 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1722 and 1.1759 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1697 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1649, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if strong data is released.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1722 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1697 and 1.1649 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.