Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the European Currency

Due to low market volatility, the levels I outlined were not tested during the first half of the day.

The market's complete disregard for Italian manufacturing statistics resulted in lower trading volumes and weak volatility. As a result, the currency pair continued to trade within a horizontal range, showing no significant changes. Market participants are likely waiting for new macroeconomic data from the U.S. and are therefore avoiding risk. Special attention will be paid to labor market data, as it serves as an early indicator of economic activity.

Changes in nonfarm employment are a key indicator of labor market conditions. Steady growth in this figure signals expanding business activity and rising consumer spending. At the same time, the unemployment rate, which reflects the percentage of the economically active population, is also important. A decline in unemployment usually indicates an improving economic situation. Moreover, data on average hourly earnings and private-sector employment dynamics will provide additional insight into inflationary pressure trends and overall business conditions. Wage growth may signal rising inflation, which in turn could affect expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1927 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.1974. At 1.1974, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. Strong euro growth can only be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1907 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1927 and 1.1974 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1907 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1865, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1927 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1907 and 1.1865 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.