Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1545 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For that reason, I did not buy the euro.

The lack of data from the eurozone allowed the euro to continue rising. In the second half of the day, the speech by Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee will be the key event, offering insight into the current views of FOMC members regarding the future of interest rates. Market participants will closely analyze any clues on whether Goolsbee holds a more hawkish or dovish stance and what factors he considers most important in setting monetary policy.

The publication of the Leading Economic Index is not a major event for the currency market. This index is traditionally seen as a forecast of future economic activity. A decline in the index may indicate a slowdown in economic growth, while an increase suggests a potential acceleration.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1557 area (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.1608. At 1.1608, I plan to exit long trades and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Continued euro growth is expected in line with the new upward trend. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1521 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a bullish reversal. Growth to opposite levels of 1.1557 and 1.1608 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1521 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1465, where I intend to exit short trades and immediately buy in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). However, pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1557 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1521 and 1.1465 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – suggested price where you can place Take Profit or manually secure profit, as growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – suggested price where you can place Take Profit or manually secure profit, as a decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without using stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are, by default, a losing strategy for intraday trading.