Trade analysis and trading tips for the British pound

A test of the 1.3569 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by only 8 points, after which pressure on the pound faded.

Amid the absence of new macroeconomic data, the British pound sterling showed relative stability, remaining within a narrow sideways channel. Such consolidation, despite the relative calm, still maintains good prerequisites for potential growth in GBP/USD.

The lack of U.S. macroeconomic news in the second half of the day naturally brings speeches by Federal Reserve officials to the forefront. Of particular interest are statements by Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic, whose comments may have a significant impact on dollar dynamics. Investors will closely analyze every remark for hints of further rate cuts. If Fed representatives adopt a dovish tone, this could signal further weakening of the U.S. currency and strengthening of the British pound. The Fed's stance on inflation and the labor market will also be closely monitored, and any dovishness in their statements is likely to be interpreted as a signal of continued U.S. dollar weakness.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3617 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.3645 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3645, I plan to exit long positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry level). Pound growth today can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3596 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3617 and 1.3645 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after an update of the 1.3596 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3565 level, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move from that level). Pressure on the pound will return today if strong data are released.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3617 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3596 and 1.3565 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.