Trade analysis and trading tips for the European currency

A test of the 1.1857 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of this level took place when MACD was in the overbought area, which allowed Sell Scenario No. 2 for the euro to be implemented. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

The record-high reading of the Sentix Investor Confidence Index supported further strengthening of the euro against the dollar and prevented the realization of Sell Scenario No. 2. Such a significant beat versus expectations indicates growing optimism among financial market participants regarding the outlook for the Eurozone economy. A Sentix value of 4.2 points is particularly important, as it reflects both the current assessment of conditions and expectations for the future. This highlights that investor confidence is supported not only by current positive signals, but also by prospects they see in the near term. Nervousness around the dollar and Trump's aggressive policies are also contributing to capital inflows and rising optimism among European investors.

In the second half of the day, market participants' attention is likely to focus on statements from Federal Reserve officials. Comments from Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic are of particular interest. Market participants will closely analyze any signals regarding the regulator's future steps on interest rates. Of special value will be the Fed representatives' assessments of the current state of the economy, inflation dynamics, and growth forecasts, as these factors form the basis for monetary policy decisions. Traders expect to gain a clearer understanding of the Fed's vision for future developments and which factors will be key in further interest rate cuts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1879 level (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.1906. At 1.1906, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. A strong rise in the euro can only be expected after weak economic data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1855 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1879 and 1.1906 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1855 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1825, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20–25 points back from that level. Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1879 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1855 and 1.1825 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.