The GBP/USD pair has returned to a bullish imbalance, and I continue to wait for a reaction to this imbalance. The bullish pattern has been filled by 100%, which is neither good nor bad. Imbalances can be filled by any amount from 1% to 100%. In each case, a reaction to the pattern is considered valid as long as the pattern itself has not been invalidated. Invalidation of our bullish pattern will occur only below the 1.3400 level. Bulls therefore have a very solid margin of safety. Today, bulls launched their attack without warning and without any informational drivers. There was no news from the UK or the US today, but the day before saw a weak JOLTS report in the US, and the day before that, a weak ADP report. Next week, Nonfarm Payrolls will be released and are highly likely to be weak as well. Even over the past week and a half, when the pound was falling confidently, I could not always find an explanation for the bears' attacks. Corrections are unavoidable, but the bulls' prospects look much better.

From the standpoint of the information background in 2025–2026, it is difficult for me to imagine a prolonged bearish offensive. Still, one cannot be 100% certain that this is impossible. In my view, the working strategy right now is to wait for a reaction in the euro and the pound to bullish imbalances. Neither has been invalidated, so bullish sentiment in the market remains fully intact.

I would also like to note that today's candle may close above Thursday's opening level. If this happens, we will get something resembling an order block. In our case, there was no liquidity sweep, but we will have a reaction to the previous bullish pattern.

The bullish trend in the pound remains intact, as confirmed by the technical picture. Imbalance 14 acts not only as a zone of interest for bulls but also as a support zone for price. Therefore, its invalidation would point to weakness in bullish intentions, potentially allowing bears to go on the offensive. The informational grounds for a decline in the pair raise some questions, but market moves do not always align with economic data. The market has its own mechanics of movement and is not 100% dependent on the information background.

The information backdrop on Friday was virtually nonexistent, and the only remaining indicator—the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index—is unlikely to change anything at the end of the week. In my view, bears squeezed the maximum out of this week. Even the Bank of England meeting could have ended with a smaller drop in the pound, as a rate cut was ultimately not implemented.

In the US, the overall information background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but dollar weakness can be expected. The situation in the US remains quite complex. US labor market data continue to disappoint. Three of the last four FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions. Recent labor market data suggest that the pause in monetary policy easing will be short-lived. Donald Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Iran, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, a new government shutdown, and the scandal involving the US elite in the Epstein case all neatly complement the current picture of political and structural crisis in the country. In my view, bulls have everything they need to continue their advance throughout 2026.

A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive information background for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the US president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound. Too many risk factors remain hanging like dead weight on the dollar. What would bears use to push the pound lower? If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in the pound sterling could be reconsidered, but at the moment there are none.

News calendar for the US and the UK:

On February 9, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday may be absent.

GBP/USD forecast and advice for traders:

For the pound, the picture remains clear; only new buy signals are missing. Bulls have launched a new offensive that threatens to become quite long-lasting and substantial. Since the bullish trend is indisputable, traders are left to trade to the upside from clear patterns and clear signals. In the near future, traders may expect the formation of a new bullish signal within imbalance 14. As a potential upside target, I considered the 1.3725 level, which has already been reached, but the pound may rise much higher in 2026. There are no limits.