On the hourly chart, GBP/USD made several alternating upward and downward moves on Wednesday and ended the day near the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3556. This is also where it started the day. Therefore, today's strategy remains unchanged from yesterday. Consolidation above 1.3556 will allow traders to expect further growth toward the resistance level of 1.3633–1.3641. A rebound from 1.3556 would signal a decline toward 1.3526 and 1.3489.

The market situation remains "bullish." The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave has not yet broken below the previous low. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, and their advantage remains intact. The "bullish" trend can be considered broken only after the low of the latest completed wave is breached, that is, below 1.3414, or after two downward waves are formed.

There was no significant fundamental background on Wednesday, and there were no political catalysts for movements in the pound or the dollar. However, although geopolitics has disappeared from the front pages of the tabloids, it remains quite important and continues to influence the foreign exchange market. Yesterday, it became known that Iran may introduce a "maritime exclusion zone" covering the entire Persian Gulf, up to the positions of U.S. ships maintaining their own blockade. Tehran may take such measures in response to Donald Trump's "economic operation," which consists of blocking all financial flows to and from Iran. Let me remind you that, as part of his campaign against Iran, the U.S. president wants to achieve a complete cessation of any cooperation with Iran by all countries around the world. Under Trump's plan, no country in the world should buy Iranian oil or conduct any other business with Tehran. This plan was first announced several weeks ago and has remained merely an attractive plan ever since. Tehran warns that if economic pressure on it intensifies, its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be extended to the entire Persian Gulf.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the support level of 1.3467–1.3482 and closed above the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538, allowing traders to expect further growth toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3657. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators. After rebounding from the support level of 1.3467–1.3482 and forming a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator, the pound may well return to the 0.0% Fibonacci level.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 8,226, while the number of Short positions decreased by 3,175. The difference between the numbers of Long and Short positions is currently approximately 85,000 versus 135,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still retain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but this is no longer the case, as the fundamental background has changed.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. It is also not certain that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's position on monetary policy remains contradictory.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in the number of initial unemployment benefit claims (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC).

On September 10, the economic calendar contains three entries and not a single important one. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Thursday will be weak.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if it rebounds from 1.3556 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526 and 1.3489. Buying was possible after a rebound from 1.3489, with targets at 1.3556 and 1.3633. The first target was reached. Consolidation above 1.3556 will allow traders to hold positions with a target of 1.3633.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn at 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and at 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.