Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 159.28 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the US dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 159.62.

The further trajectory of USD/JPY will be determined by developments in the Middle East, as well as the release of US data on consumer sentiment and housing price dynamics. Tensions in the Middle East region traditionally support the US dollar, which often acts as a "safe haven" during periods of global instability. Any escalation or, conversely, easing of the conflict will remain under close market attention and may significantly influence the movement of major dollar currency pairs. Equally important will be the upcoming economic reports. The consumer confidence indicator, reflecting US household sentiment, is a key measure of economic conditions. The housing price index will provide valuable information about the US real estate market—one of the key sectors of the US economy. The combined analysis of these geopolitical and macroeconomic factors will determine the pair's future direction.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 159.65 (green line on the chart), with a target at 160.05 (thicker green line on the chart). At 160.05, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move back from the level). A rise in the pair today is possible in the case of a firm stance by the US and Iran. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of 159.49 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 159.65 and 160.05 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.49 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.20, where I will exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move back). Pressure on the pair today may return in the case of positive news from the Middle East. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of 159.65 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.49 and 159.20 can be expected.

On the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.