Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1507 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, a lull in the news flow is expected, as no significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled. Consequently, all market and analyst attention will focus on speeches from Federal Reserve representatives. Special attention will be paid to statements regarding inflation-fighting strategies and possible measures to maintain or increase key rates. If Powell and Williams demonstrate firm resolve in addressing rising prices, emphasizing the need to maintain high rates for a longer period, this could trigger a new rally in the U.S. dollar. However, an alternative scenario should not be discounted. If the speeches are more cautious or ambiguous, as is currently the case with the situation in the Middle East, the market reaction may differ, potentially resulting in profit-taking on already open long-dollar positions.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buy euros if the price reaches around 1.1500 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1519. I plan to exit the market at 1.1519 and also sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected if the Fed's tone is dovish. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and has just started rising from that level.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1485 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1500 and 1.1519 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the 1.1485 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1454, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move back from this level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and has just started declining from that level.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1500 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1485 and 1.1454 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.