Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 153.61 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 25 points.

Ahead, we have important U.S. economic data: figures on durable goods orders and industrial production. In addition, FOMC member Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak, and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting will be published.

Information on changes in industrial production will help assess the current production cycle and its outlook, while durable goods orders serve as a leading indicator reflecting business investment activity and consumer demand for high-value purchases. Strong data could potentially support the U.S. dollar. Michelle Bowman's speech and the release of the January Fed meeting minutes will be crucial for understanding the regulator's current sentiment. Particular attention will be paid to discussions about the timing and pace of potential interest rate cuts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 153.86 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 154.24 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.24, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). The pair may rise today in the event of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 153.59 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 153.86 and 154.24 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 153.59 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.12, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak reports.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 153.86 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 153.59 and 153.12 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.