Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 153.35 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test at 153.35 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, allowing for the implementation of Scenario 2 to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair increased by 20 pips.

Despite the weak data showing a sharp decline in the services activity index in Japan, demand for the yen returned during today's Asian trading session. The index's 0.5% decline was an unpleasant surprise for the market, which had been expecting sustained positive dynamics. The decrease in activity was observed across both new orders and overall business activity, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate of this key sector of the economy. Despite the pessimistic figures, the Japanese currency found support. It is clear that the current dynamics of the yen depend not only on domestic data but also on global macroeconomic factors, particularly the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Given that expectations of a U.S. rate cut are strengthening, this could put even more pressure on the dollar, leading to a further decline in USD/JPY.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 153.07 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 153.51 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.51, I intend to exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 152.70 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal in the market. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 153.07 and 153.51.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 152.70 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 152.27 level, where I intend to exit the short position and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 153.07 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 152.70 and 152.27.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.