Trade analysis and trading tips for the European currency

Due to low volatility, the levels I identified were not tested during the first half of the day.

Given the current unpredictability faced by participants in the foreign exchange market, and the complete lack of any reaction to the publication of the minutes from the European Central Bank meeting, the lack of activity from traders is quite expected. The report published after the latest ECB meeting pointed to the regulator's firm intention to keep interest rates unchanged, as inflation indicators no longer cause any concern. Under such circumstances, many market participants have chosen to take a wait-and-see approach, avoiding active trading.

Later, U.S. economic data will be released. Initial jobless claims are an important indicator of labor market conditions. An increase in this figure signals a possible slowdown in economic growth and a likely rise in unemployment, which in turn may negatively affect consumer spending and overall business activity. A downward revision of GDP for the third quarter of 2025 would also be a problem for dollar buyers. On the other hand, an acceleration of economic growth beyond forecasts is usually perceived positively by market participants.

Finally, we are awaiting the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. An increase in this indicator could serve as a catalyst for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy on interest rates, which may lead to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the level around 1.1709 (green line on the chart), with a target move toward 1.1728. At 1.1728, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected only after weak economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1687 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1709 and 1.1728 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1687 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1657, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return with strong economic data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1709 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1687 and 1.1657 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very cautiously. Ahead of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.