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15.12.2025 12:50 AM
The best times for the European currency are ahead. Since 2008, the euro has depreciated against the US dollar and concluded this process only in 2022, briefly falling below the price parity. Thus, the decline of the euro lasted a long 14 years. During this period, the European currency lost about 1.5 times its value. While this may seem modest, it is significant given the 14-year duration. However, it is believed that the upward trend began in 2022 and could also last a decade. Consequently, the long-term prospects for the euro appear bright.
As traders, we are more interested in short-term trends. Over the past five months, we have witnessed the construction of correction wave 4, or any other corrective wave if the current wave count is inaccurate. If this is indeed the case, the upward trend segment, which began in January 2025, will resume in any case. The only question is when. Wave 4 has taken on an unconventional shape, unlike wave 4 for the British pound. However, unconventional waves do appear regularly. Therefore, one can expect the euro to rise well above the 20th figure from the current levels. In the least favorable scenario, the EUR/USD instrument will still complete a convincing wave 4, where the low of the wave will be below the low of wave a.
Next week, for the first time in a long while, there will be plenty of important events not only in the US but also in Europe. Firstly, there is the European Central Bank meeting. Although no market participants expect a decrease in interest rates, let alone an increase, this event cannot be considered ordinary or trivial. Christine Lagarde may outline the ECB's plans for 2026, and who knows how the ECB envisions monetary policy for the next year.
Secondly, the indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for December will be released. Business activity indexes can indicate future economic growth rates, as they are leading indicators. The EU's economic growth remains weak, so high indexes would be beneficial for the euro.
Thirdly, the final November inflation report will be published. Its value is unlikely to differ from 2.2%, and the ECB will perceive any figure around 2% as "normal." In my opinion, the euro could continue to enjoy moderate demand.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend to the 25th figure. The current upward wave formation is beginning to develop, and one hopes we are observing the construction of an impulse wave set that is part of the global wave 5. Therefore, we should expect a rise to the 25th figure, as I have mentioned before.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward impulse trend segment, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38th and 40th figures.
In the short term, I anticipate wave 3 or c, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c continues its formation, and the current wave set is beginning to take on an impulsive appearance. Therefore, one can expect continued price increases with targets around 1.3580 and 1.3630.
