Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 149.63 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 148.70, allowing for a profit of approximately 90 pips.

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the key interest rate unchanged within the 4.25%-4.5% range. However, the pressure on the pair came not from the rate decision itself, but from the revision of economic forecasts. The Federal Reserve raised its core inflation forecast for the end of 2025 to 2.8% and downgraded economic growth expectations to 1.7% by the end of the year. This was enough to bring renewed pressure on the dollar.

The sharp decline in USD/JPY suggests that the recent upward correction in the pair, which was supported by the Bank of Japan's wait-and-see stance on interest rates, is gradually ending. It also indicates that medium-term demand for the yen remains strong.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 148.53, aiming for a rise to 149.29. At 149.29, I intend to exit the buy trades and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from that level. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 148.15 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 148.53 and 149.29 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout of 148.15, which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.30, where I intend to exit the sell trades and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips from that level. Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 148.53 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 148.15 and 147.30 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.