Thursday Trade Review:

EUR/USD 1H Chart

The EUR/USD pair showed no interesting movements in the first half of Thursday. During the night, the price rebounded from the 1.1527–1.1531 level and rose slightly, but traders were unable—or unwilling—to extend the upward movement. It should be noted that the official results of the ECB meeting will be released. Although the market has no doubts about monetary tightening, it is not rushing to buy the euro. However, we still believe that the euro may rise slightly after the announcement. The key question is that this growth is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on the technical outlook or market sentiment. The market continues to ignore fundamentals and macroeconomic data, focusing instead on major geopolitical events. Even further exchanges of attacks between Iran and the United States are no longer considered "important events." Therefore, strong trending moves are unlikely today. In the United States, the PPI report will be released, but after yesterday's inflation data it is of almost no significance.

EUR/USD 5M Chart

On the 5-minute timeframe, a buy signal was formed in the first half of Thursday around the 1.1527–1.1531 level. However, it appeared during the night, so beginner traders were unlikely to trade it. Before the opening of the US session, the price returned to the 1.1527–1.1531 level, so another signal may soon form.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the flat phase has ended and a downward trend has resumed after three weeks of consolidation. However, further gains in the US dollar will depend entirely on geopolitical developments. If full-scale conflict in the Middle East resumes, the dollar will continue to strengthen. If Tehran and Washington return to negotiations, risk currencies will be supported.

On Thursday, beginner traders may open short positions targeting 1.1455–1.1474 if the price breaks below the 1.1527–1.1531 level. Buy trades may be considered on a rebound from the 1.1527–1.1531 level, targeting 1.1584–1.1594.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be monitored: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1830–1.1837, 1.1899–1.1908. Within minutes, the ECB meeting results and interest rate decision will be published. A press conference with Christine Lagarde will follow in half an hour. There is no certainty that the market will react strongly to this event, as the ECB's intention to raise rates has been known for over a week.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by the time required for its formation (bounce or breakout). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more losing trades have been opened from the same level due to false signals, all further signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should be traded only when there is sufficient volatility and a confirmed trend (trendline or channel).
5. If two levels are very close to each other (5–20 points), they should be treated as a single support or resistance level.
6. After price moves 15 points in the expected direction, Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What Is on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels (zones) are used as targets for buy/sell trades or as signal sources.
• Red lines represent channels or trendlines showing the current trend and preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a signal source.

Important speeches and economic reports (in the news calendar) can strongly influence currency movements. Therefore, trading during such events should be done with extreme caution, or positions should be closed to avoid sharp reversals.

Beginner Forex traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and proper money management are key to long-term trading success.