Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3350 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling pounds. As a result, the pair decreased by 25 pips.

However, a sharp strengthening of the British pound and a weakening of the US dollar followed, attributed to geopolitical factors and Trump's statements regarding the Middle East.

Today in the UK, a number of macroeconomic indicators are set to be released, which could significantly impact the national currency's exchange rate. In the first half of the day, data on changes in gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, and the goods trade balance will be published. Unfortunately, analyst forecasts for these indicators do not inspire optimism—weak figures are expected. Under these circumstances, discussing significant growth for the British pound is likely premature. Weak GDP indicators may signal a slowdown or even stagnation in the British economy, which, in turn, undermines investor confidence and decreases the attractiveness of the national currency. Negative trends in industrial production are also unlikely to boost the pound, as industrial production is a key component of the country's economic activity.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3417 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 1.3455 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 1.3455, I intend to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the pound to grow today after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3393, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3417 and 1.3455.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level at 1.3393 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3355, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3417, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3393 and 1.3355.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.