Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The price test at 1.1790 occurred when the MACD indicator had dropped significantly from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

The day before, the euro continued its rapid decline against the dollar, driven by encouraging US labor-market data, particularly initial unemployment claims. Today, key indicators reflecting the current state of business activity in the Eurozone are scheduled for release. The PMI indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors will be decisive in determining the euro's direction in the first half of the day. The PMI indices, calculated by S&P Global, serve as leading indicators that allow for an assessment of the current state of the economy before more detailed reports are available. A sustained increase in manufacturing sector indicators usually signals higher production volumes, growing orders, and, consequently, potential increases in employment levels. Similarly, positive dynamics in the services sector indicator indicate increased consumer demand and expanding business activity in the service industry, which is a significant component of the economy. Good figures will help the euro correct after yesterday's decline.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1762 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1791. At 1.1791, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1747 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth toward opposing levels of 1.1762 and 1.1791 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1747 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1718, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if weak data is released. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1762 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease toward opposing levels of 1.1747 and 1.1718 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.