Lihat juga
21.08.2026 12:39 AM
The yield on US government bonds rose to all-time highs last week. What does this mean in practice? If bond yields are rising, it means the US government's payments for servicing these bonds are also increasing. If it were a couple of extra million dollars per month, probably no one would worry about it. However, servicing the debt is already costing wealthy America billions and tens of billions of dollars. This monthly burden on the budget pushes the US deeper into debt. America, accustomed to living on credit, could fall precisely because of these very loans. Undoubtedly, the US economy will not collapse in the literal sense of the word, but Donald Trump has created structural problems that the next government will have to address for years, if not decades.
Certainly, at any moment the Federal Reserve can print the dollars needed to service the debt, but what will happen to inflation and the dollar itself in that case? Right now, the market clearly understands what to do in the current circumstances — it's fleeing from the American currency. The intensified buyback of the Treasury's own bonds means that the dollar will be in much less demand than before, for two reasons. Firstly, demand will fall as bond yields decline, meaning fewer investors will want to buy them. Secondly, confidence in the American economy and government will be even more undermined.
Already, leading analysts around the world have "reversed their shoes." A couple of months ago, everyone unanimously called for waiting until the American currency strengthened, whereas now everyone recommends getting rid of the dollar just in case. Two months ago, everyone believed in the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and expected the dollar to grow due to geopolitical factors. Now, market participants have realized that the dollar only showed growth in 2026 due to Trump's war with Iran. Without the war, there would have been no dollar growth.
Now, the number one problem is not even the labor market or inflation, but rather the US economy's growth. The quantitative easing measures implemented by the Treasury will undoubtedly accelerate the economy, but inflation will soar alongside it. Trump will continue to demand that the Fed lower interest rates, as this is the only way to achieve stronger GDP growth. Based on everything mentioned above, I believe more in the Fed lowering rates, as Trump wants, than in a policy tightening or other "hawkish" measures. The US state apparatus has already begun adopting measures to stimulate the economy. This could mean that they are willing to sacrifice not only inflation but also the labor market.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the instrument remains within an upward section of the trend and, in the shorter term, has presumably transitioned to a new upward wave set. This is an excellent time to establish long positions. Wave 5 in C appears to be truncated. If the downward section of the trend, which began on January 28, does not take on a more extended five-wave form (which would require a strong news backdrop in favor of the dollar), the EUR/USD instrument is at the very beginning of a new, prolonged upward trend section, with targets scattered up to the 25-figure.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has taken on a clearly defined shape. We now see a clear corrective structure A-B-C on the charts, which is complete. Therefore, I expect the formation of an upward wave set that takes on an impulsive shape and aligns with the impulsive structure of the EUR/USD instrument. If this is the case, the British pound is currently in the third wave, and the targets for the entire trend section are above the 39 figure. In the coming months, I am considering only bullish trading.
