US GDP growth forecast for 2026 upgraded to 2%
A Bloomberg survey indicated a slight increase in economists' expectations for the growth of the US economy. The median estimate from 84 economists anticipates 2% GDP growth in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 1.9%. The forecast for 2025 has also been raised to 2% from 1.9%, reflecting a more optimistic view of economic activity.
Inflation expectations have decreased slightly. Economists now project consumer inflation at 2.8% in 2026, down from 2.9% in the previous survey. This suggests growing confidence that inflationary pressure will decline toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Expectations regarding interest rates have remained unchanged, with the upper limit of the Fed's rate expected to drop to 3.25% by the end of 2026, down from its current level of 3.75%.
ING Bank provides an alternative scenario: 2% GDP growth in 2025, followed by a slight slowdown to 1.9% in 2026, and an acceleration to 2.2% in 2027. ING expects inflation to stabilize at 2.8% in 2025-2026. Such forecasts reflect a consensus on a soft economic trajectory for the US, with a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure.