Trade Review and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The price test of 1.1427 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. A second test of this level for buying did not occur.

The euro showed a positive reaction to the released economic data. Inflationary pressure on producers, reflected in rising prices, indirectly suggests a potential increase in consumer prices in the future, which in turn could push the European Central Bank toward a tighter monetary policy stance, which is positive for the euro.

In the second half of the day, there is no U.S. economic data scheduled. This creates an opportunity window for short-term speculative trades aimed at recovering part of yesterday's decline. Market participants accustomed to active price movement are likely to attempt tactical positioning due to the absence of key news. However, despite the potential for a corrective move, the longer-term outlook for the euro remains uncertain.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered if the price reaches the 1.1475 level (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1512. At 1.1512, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Further euro growth can only be expected in the case of weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1448 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1475 and 1.1512 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1448 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1411, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1475 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1448 and 1.1411 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price level for taking profit or manually closing positions, as further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price level for taking profit or manually closing positions, as further downside below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should take into account overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental data releases to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if proper risk management is not applied and large trading volumes are used.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.