See also
10.06.2026 08:03 AMThe price test at 1.1573 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test at 1.1573 occurred while the MACD was in the overbought area, prompting the implementation of scenario #2 for selling euros. As a result, the pair decreased by 40 pips.
Recent events in the Middle East, related to the deterioration of relations between the US and Iran, once again caused a noticeable surge in the US dollar. In particular, reports of US strikes on Iran directly affected the dynamics of the currency pair. Further developments require close attention from market participants. Escalation of the conflict or, conversely, diplomatic resolution will have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, including the European currency.
Today, the first half of the day will be marked only by the publication of Italy's macroeconomic data on changes in industrial production volume. Analysts agree that the results will likely not provide significant support to the European currency. Statistics reflecting the state of one of the key sectors of the Italian economy are traditionally closely monitored by market participants but have little influence on the direction of the euro.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1556 (green line on the chart), with a target to reach 1.1576. At 1.1576, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect growth in the euro only after good data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1540, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1556 and 1.1576.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1540 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1522, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will only return in case of very weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1556, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1540 and 1.1522.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
