See also
03.04.2026 08:42 AMThe test of the price at 159.49 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by more than 20 pips.
Despite encouraging data on US unemployment claims, the dollar slightly corrected against the Japanese yen; however, during today's Asian trading session, it quickly recovered its losses, once again hitting the psychological level of 160. Above this level, many traders are hesitant to act, as the Bank of Japan has repeatedly warned about possible interventions to support the national currency. Historically, the Bank has intervened around the 160 yen mark in recent years.
However, there is little that can currently help strengthen the yen. The situation surrounding Iran, coupled with further disruptions in oil supplies, has already triggered a sharp rise in energy prices and heightened demand for safe-haven assets. Due to concerns over negative consequences for the Japanese economy, which is heavily dependent on energy prices, investors continue to shy away from the yen, reallocating their investments into safer instruments.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.75 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 160.09 (thicker green line on the chart). At 160.09, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions back (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.49 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 159.75 and 160.09 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 159.49 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.15 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.75 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 159.49 and 159.15 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
