See also
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, in line with the current trend. There were no reasons for a new "rally" of the European currency. The only major event on Thursday was the ECB meeting. It was right after this that the euro experienced quite a strong rise, although it eventually ended with a decline. However, the euro initially rose — once again without any cause or justification. The ECB decided to lower all three key rates for the eighth time, and Christine Lagarde did not give a single hint that the cycle of monetary policy easing was coming to an end. According to her, inflation has been defeated, economic growth rates won't decline due to Donald Trump's tariff policy, but at the same time, her statements implied that rates could continue to be lowered, as inflation could fall to an average of 1.6% in 2026, which is very low. In general, if the euro had fallen yesterday, it would have been logical and expected. But the euro rose again.
EUR/USD 5M Chart.
In the 5-minute time frame on Thursday, several trading signals were formed, but due to the ECB meeting, the price movements were either very weak or too volatile. Therefore, the first buy signal, which took about six hours to form, was hardly worth acting upon. The buy signal near the 1.1474–1.1481 level appeared after the price had already risen by about 70 points — and in the context of the ECB's dovish decision. The sell signal near the same area could be acted upon since the euro's decline was much more logical than its rise.
How to Trade on Friday:In the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair broke the ascending trendline; however, the upward trend that began during Donald Trump's presidency remains intact. Basically, for the USD to keep falling regularly, it's enough that Trump is the president. For the market, this is already a significant reason to flee from the dollar without looking back. If Trump continues to threaten, issue ultimatums, and introduce/increase tariffs, the market will have few alternatives. Trump's tariffs haven't been repealed, and negotiations with China and the EU are once again stalling, so the trade war situation has not improved.
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair can move in any direction, as the market mood will depend on U.S. macroeconomic statistics. If the data turns out weak, the market will gladly continue to sell off the dollar.
On the 5-minute time frame, consider the levels 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1088, 1.1132–1.1140, 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1292, 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413–1.1424, 1.1474–1.1481, 1.1513, 1.1548, 1.1571, 1.1607–1.1622. On Friday, the EU will release reports on retail sales and Q1 GDP, but these data are not the most crucial. Much more attention will be paid to the U.S. NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports.
Main Rules of the Trading System:
What's on the Charts:
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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