The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The most recent upward wave broke above the previous high, and the last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. This confirms a bullish trend. The current trend can only be considered over if the pair consolidates below the 1.1260–1.1282 support zone. That would mark a new downward wave breaking the previous low.

Recent news of the suspension of tariff hikes for the EU supported the bears, but it may not be enough to break the bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop on Tuesday again favored the bears for the second day in a row. The only report of the day—on U.S. durable goods orders—came out better than expected. However, the data was not genuinely positive, as April orders fell by 6.3% following a 7.6% surge in March. This signals the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs is beginning to show in economic indicators—and not in the best way. U.S. GDP declined by 0.3% in Q1, a rare occurrence in recent years.

As a result, bears may soon run out of steam. We won't speculate on when that might happen. For now, the bullish trend remains intact, with no graphic signs of a reversal. If they emerge, then we can reassess for a potential bearish shift.

On the H4 chart, the pair has turned in favor of the euro and continues rising toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. A previous bearish divergence resulted in only a minor pullback. A bullish divergence is forming on the CCI indicator, which could halt the local decline and support a new upward move.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

In the most recent COT report, long positions held by speculators declined by 3,507. Short positions rose by 6,814. Net positioning remains bullish, largely due to Donald Trump's policies.

There are currently 206,000 long positions versus 132,000 short positions. The gap continues to widen in favor of the bulls. This means the euro remains in demand, while the dollar does not. The trend has persisted for 16 consecutive weeks, with large players reducing short exposure and increasing longs.

The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the dollar on paper, but Trump's trade policies overshadow this advantage, threatening to push the U.S. into recession with long-term consequences.

News Calendar – May 28

• EU: German Unemployment Rate (07:55 UTC)
• U.S.: FOMC Meeting Minutes (18:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for Wednesday includes two key entries. However, the fundamental impact is expected to be weak. Bears are unlikely to get the support they need from these events.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Short positions were valid after a close below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone, targeting 1.1320 and 1.1282. The first target has already been reached. Long positions are advisable on a rebound from the 1.1260–1.1282 support zone (hourly chart), with targets at 1.1320 and back toward 1.1374–1.1380. The bears are attacking, but their momentum may be fading.

Fibonacci Levels:

• Hourly chart: based on 1.1574–1.1066
• 4-hour chart: based on 1.1214–1.0179