Analysis of Thursday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair showed minimal upward movement; however, the 5-minute timeframe indicates this was largely a sideways move. The UK published GDP and industrial production reports yesterday, which, as expected, had no impact on the pair's movement, nor did the macroeconomic data from the U.S. The UK GDP exceeded expectations in quarterly terms but declined year-on-year. Industrial production figures fell short of expectations, leading to a contradiction between the two reports. In general, the market continues to demonstrate two things. First, it is only interested in news related to Trump's major decisions and developments in the global trade war. Second, regardless of the news or events, it is not ready to actively buy the dollar. Over the past month, the GBP/USD pair has failed to correct significantly after a 700-pip rally.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

In the 5-minute timeframe, the price rebounded from the 1.3259 level three times, with only minor deviations. The pound failed to reach the nearest target of 1.3329 in all three instances. However, not a single sell signal was formed. Thus, novice traders could have opened long positions, but it was extremely difficult to profit or lose from them.

Trading Strategy for Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to follow only Trump-related developments and remains highly skeptical of Trump's policies. Recall that even signing a trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK is a positive for the dollar, not the pound, since the dollar had been falling on any news of new tariffs and sanctions. Now the dollar should strengthen on any news about trade war de-escalation, but the market still lacks confidence in the U.S. currency.

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair is expected to trade primarily on technical factors. It's safe to assume that the market will again look for any opportunity to sell the dollar or simply wait for news.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the pair can currently be traded using the following levels: 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329, 1.3365, 1.3421–1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537, 1.3580–1.3598. No significant events are scheduled in the UK for Friday, and the U.S. will release several second-tier reports. We do not believe these data points will trigger any intraday trending movement. Most likely, another flat day lies ahead.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.