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17.04.2025 11:02 AM
GBP/USD Forecast for April 17, 2025

Yesterday, the UK released inflation data for March. Core CPI declined from 3.0% y/y to 2.8% y/y, and headline CPI dropped from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y, below the forecast of 2.7% y/y. The attempt by the pound to rise toward the target level of 1.3311 was halted — the day ended with a gain of only 11 points, and this morning, the price is already moving into the 1.3184–1.3208 range.

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However, the daily chart shows that the price has precisely tested the upper boundary of the upward price channel. This test occurred a day earlier than our projection, but the bulls have done their job, and everything is now set for a reversal.

The growth from January 13 to April 16 is perfectly described by the Fibonacci grid. The 23.6% retracement level coincides with our support at 1.3101, and the 38.2% level aligns with the target range of 1.2816/47. The Kruzenshtern line is also heading toward that zone. A break below this support could pave the way for a long-term decline in the pound.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is attempting to enter the 1.3184–1.3208 support range as the Marlin oscillator reaches the boundary of the downward trend territory. A simultaneous breakout below support by both the price and the oscillator will strengthen the bearish momentum. The first target is 1.3101.

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

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