empty
15.04.2025 09:46 AM
Trump Will Either Win or Lose. Is There No Middle Ground? (Potential Renewed Decline in #SPX and Bitcoin)

On Monday, markets calmed slightly amid Donald Trump's apparent backpedaling on the trade barriers he had imposed on America's trading partners. It gives the impression that the U.S. president is starting to retreat. But is that the case?

Clearly, the U.S. orchestrated the chaos surrounding the tariffs, primarily targeting China but also aimed at Europe and India. The latter two have traditionally shown weakness and remain highly dependent on Washington. Market speculators warmly welcomed Trump's decision to grant a 90-day delay, and the subsequent pause in implementing high tariffs on computers, components, and consumer electronics helped fuel gains in tech giants' shares, which lifted other sectors and global financial markets overall.

But is Trump truly backing down, with his trade war slowly fading away or becoming a more localized conflict focused on Beijing?

In a previous article, I mentioned the distinctive psychological profile of the 47th president of the United States, which plays a huge role in America's decision-making. Whether we like it or not, that's a fact. It's already clear that Trump is maneuvering. In simpler terms, he will continue to pursue his goals — by fair means or foul. He will manipulate, make promises, break them, and so on. This is all part of American political tradition and typical of its presidents. Therefore, we should expect continued pressure on China and other trade partners as Trump seeks to impose his interests through strong-arm tactics. That means periods of easing will alternate with increased pressure. The question is whether this tactic will be effective and how it will affect market dynamics.

It seems investors are aware of the uncertain prospects of Trump's trade war, so it's unlikely we'll see lasting optimism. Most likely, any local stock market rallies will remain under the shadow of trade war uncertainty. The start of earnings season should soon offer some clarity. Yes, the trade war began in March, which isn't enough time to fully assess its impact — but if significant negative consequences begin to emerge, stocks may struggle to advance.

A similar picture will likely unfold in the commodities market. Cryptocurrencies will also remain under pressure, as they are susceptible to trade war rumors and developments. As for the U.S. dollar, after last week's decline, it has begun to consolidate below the key psychological level of 100.00.

I have serious doubts about Trump's alleged retreat. I believe that the chaos in the markets will persist. It is unclear how long this will continue. However, we can confidently say that this situation will persist until the U.S. president either reaches agreements with key trade partners or his approach to "Making America Great Again" collapses under the weight of domestic problems and mounting resistance.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD on the S&P 500 futures is hovering around 5397.70. If it fails to rebound from this level and resume its upward movement, we may see a local reversal and decline toward 5148.55 amid deteriorating market sentiment. The sell trigger could be a drop below 5369.56.

Bitcoin

The token is trading below the 86088.50 mark. Deteriorating market sentiment may lead to a price reversal and a decline toward 82120.85. The sell trigger could be a breakdown below 85095.00.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, Tuesday, during the European session, the AUD/JPY pair reached the round level of 97.00. The yen continues to show relative weakness amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan

Irina Yanina 12:44 2025-07-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair is gaining positive momentum, recovering from more than two weeks of declines triggered by Trump's threat to impose new tariffs. On Saturday, Trump announced plans

Irina Yanina 12:30 2025-07-15 UTC+2

The European Union Finalizes Second List of Countermeasures

The European Union has finalized its second list of countermeasures against U.S. goods, totaling 72 billion euros. This step comes in response to the ongoing trade tensions between

Jakub Novak 11:25 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Trump's Actions Alarm Germany

While the euro remains relatively stable, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is not feeling as confident. In a recent interview, he stated that U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose 30%

Jakub Novak 11:11 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Rising Inflation in the U.S. Will Decrease the Likelihood of Fed Rate Cuts (Possible Resumption of USD/CAD and Bitcoin Growth)

While President Donald Trump continues playing his favorite game called "Make America Great Again," market participants are calculating the cost of U.S. trade wars with nearly the entire world

Pati Gani 09:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

The Market Will Break Out of Its Cage

Deep down, markets still believe tariffs could become an inflationary force. However, without confirmation from official data, investors are not ready to sell the S&P 500. They've grown accustomed

Marek Petkovich 09:14 2025-07-15 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 15? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday. The key report of the day is, of course, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Why is it important? At the moment, inflation

Paolo Greco 07:27 2025-07-15 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 15: U.S. Budget Turns Surplus — What's Next?

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade lower on Monday, despite the lack of any strong fundamental reasons for such a move. Of course, one can always find or even

Paolo Greco 03:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 15: No Agreement Signed with the EU. Mexico Gets Caught in the Crossfire

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly throughout Monday, as the market continued to ignore Trump's tariff hikes. If the euro remains flat while the British pound is actively falling

Paolo Greco 03:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

The Budget Is Now in Surplus, but the National Debt Isn't Falling

Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the first budget surplus since 2017. Many in the market may have interpreted this as great news for the dollar

Chin Zhao 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.