Analysis of Thursday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

Over the past 24 hours, the GBP/USD pair moved up by 170 pips. During the night into Friday, the pound sterling continued to rise. A few days ago, we noted that the dollar had significantly strengthened but also mentioned that we wouldn't be surprised if it soon began to depreciate just as quickly. As we can see, Trump's new tariffs on China were more than enough to plummet the U.S. dollar again. As previously stated, the dollar can fall indefinitely because Trump can endlessly raise tariffs on China and other countries. The technical picture on higher timeframes is beginning to shift significantly, so for now, it holds little relevance. We first need to get through Trump's tariff introduction phase. Once things settle down, we can reevaluate the technical situation on the higher timeframes and draw conclusions.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe Thursday, a fair number of signals were generated, although the movement wasn't as strong as in the euro. As a result, novice traders' profits weren't as large as with the euro, but there were still opportunities to earn. Today is a new day for Donald Trump, which means new opportunities.

Trading Strategy for Friday:

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair should have started a downward trend long ago, but Trump continues to do everything possible to drag the dollar down. Since the official start of the global trade war, we've refrained from making long-term predictions about price movements. On Friday, we saw a sharp drop in the pair, which could mark the beginning of a substantial correction. However, the market remains under the control of Trump and his decisions. Trump announces new tariffs—and the dollar falls again.

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair may remain in a state of turbulence. Predicting where the pound and the dollar will go today is virtually impossible. The pair is rising logically, but no one knows what headlines will emerge today from Beijing or Washington.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels can currently be used for trading: 1.2502–1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2613, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272.

In the UK, GDP and industrial production reports are scheduled for release on Friday, but we don't believe the market will pay any attention to them. Even if it does, they're unlikely to have any real impact.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.