empty
04.04.2025 11:50 AM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Gold is attracting some sellers for the second day in a row, despite the absence of any clear fundamental catalyst for a decline. Most likely, this is due to trading repositioning ahead of the key U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, as well as a corrective move in the U.S. dollar driven by short-covering.

This image is no longer relevant

Recent actions by U.S. President Donald Trump—who announced reciprocal tariffs on imports—have shaken global financial markets and heightened concerns about potential negative impacts on the global economy. This has led to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle, which in turn supports interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

Interestingly, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has fallen below 4% for the first time in six months, preventing the dollar from recovering. At the same time, data on U.S. services sector activity indicated a slowdown, which further weighs on the dollar and supports the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold may find support near the $3057 area, which aligns with the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart—a key reference point for short-term traders. A break below this level could trigger technical selling, making the metal vulnerable to a deeper corrective decline toward intermediate support at $3035, en route to the psychological level of $3000.

This image is no longer relevant

On the other hand, the resistance zone around $3116 will be key for the bulls. A breakout above this area could signal the continuation of the multi-month uptrend during which gold reached a new all-time high—especially now that oscillators on the daily chart have exited overbought territory.

For more actionable trading opportunities today, it is advisable to focus on the release of the NFP employment data, which could significantly impact market direction.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

U.S. Inflation Puts Pressure on the Fed

The U.S. dollar rose yesterday against a number of risk assets, despite core inflation in June rising less than expected. Inflation has been increasing for the fifth consecutive month

Jakub Novak 09:24 2025-07-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 16? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Wednesday. The most important report is the UK inflation data, which will be published within the hour. While we do not believe this report

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-07-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 16. "The Devil Is Not as Scary as He Is Painted"

The GBP/USD currency pair has been in a downtrend for the past few weeks, raising some questions. Yes, if we switch to the daily (24-hour) timeframe, the current strong downward

Paolo Greco 04:22 2025-07-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 16. U.S. Inflation Has No Effect

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade calmly throughout Tuesday. Of course, when the U.S. inflation report was released, there was an emotional spike in the market. However, overall, volatility

Paolo Greco 04:22 2025-07-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. What Does the U.S. CPI Report Indicate?

Traders of the EUR/USD pair interpreted the U.S. CPI report in favor of the U.S. dollar, despite the release being somewhat mixed. The report reflected an acceleration in both headline

Irina Manzenko 00:03 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Trump Misleads Again—and Loses

Over the past few months, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve for its reluctance to cut interest rates. According to the U.S. President, such a high rate (4.5%)

Chin Zhao 00:03 2025-07-16 UTC+2

The Dollar Launches a Witch Hunt

Everyone gets what they want. Supporters of the U.S. dollar are pleased that American inflation accelerated in June, leaving the Federal Reserve with no grounds to cut the federal funds

Marek Petkovich 00:02 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Pressure on the Pound Is Mounting

Incoming macroeconomic data from the UK appears distinctly weak. GDP unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in May instead of the forecasted 0.1% growth. The trade balance deficit exceeded expectations, industrial production

Kuvat Raharjo 00:02 2025-07-16 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, Tuesday, during the European session, the AUD/JPY pair reached the round level of 97.00. The yen continues to show relative weakness amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan

Irina Yanina 12:44 2025-07-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair is gaining positive momentum, recovering from more than two weeks of declines triggered by Trump's threat to impose new tariffs. On Saturday, Trump announced plans

Irina Yanina 12:30 2025-07-15 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.