Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 150.75 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Ahead lies an important economic landscape that could influence the currency markets, particularly the USD/JPY pair. The focus will be on the release of the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—one of the key inflation indicators closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. Higher-than-expected PCE data may reinforce expectations of a hawkish Fed, which in turn could support the dollar. Conversely, weaker data may undermine the greenback.

Further momentum may come from speeches by two members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Michael S. Barr and Raphael Bostic. Investors will be closely analyzing their comments for clues on the Fed's future plans regarding interest rates and inflation control measures.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 150.85 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 151.35 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 151.35, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point pullback). A rise in the pair may unfold as part of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.56 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward the 150.85 and 151.35 levels may then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakdown of the 150.56 level (red line on the chart), which may lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 150.09, where I will exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair is possible at any time today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 150.85 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the 150.56 and 150.10 levels can then be expected.

Chart Guide:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price to place Take Profit or close trades manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price to place Take Profit or close trades manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – use overbought/oversold areas to guide market entries

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must exercise great caution when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not using money management and trading large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.