EUR/USD is trading around 1.1861 below the 21 SMA and showing signs of exhaustion in its upward momentum. The euro could continue its fall in the coming days, but only if it consolidates below 1.1900.

If the instrument falls below the 5/8 Murray located at 1.1840, it is expected to reach the 200 EMA around 1.1800 and could even continue its bearish cycle until it reaches the 6/8 Murray around 1.1735.

With a consolidation above 1.1900 and a sharp break of the downtrend channel, we reckon EUR/USD could reach the 6/8 Murray located at 1.1962 and could even reach the psychological level of 1.20.

Given that the euro is within a downtrend channel formed since the end of January, a pullback towards 1.1900 or towards the top of the downtrend channel will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with targets at 1.1840, 1.1800, and finally, at 1.1745.