আরও দেখুন
15.07.2026 12:50 AM
Iran's third trump card, which has not yet been played, is the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Previously, Tehran had threatened to blockade this second vital strait in the Middle East, but it has yet to follow through. However, the longer the conflict continues and the more pressure Trump exerts, the greater the likelihood that the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait will also be blocked. It should be noted that Yemen controls the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, within which Iran's allies, the Houthis, and Hezbollah are located. These two groups could very well orchestrate a blockade. Therefore, the threats to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait are not empty.
Iran's fourth trump card is its ability to strike oil and gas infrastructure in the region, particularly in U.S. ally territories, further driving up oil and gas prices. This is a tactic Iran has exploited at every opportunity.
As we can see, Iran has several strong trump cards, some of which are much stronger than Trump's. What does Trump have in hand to dictate his terms? Weapons and military power? It is obvious to everyone that Iran cannot be broken by force. Therefore, the U.S. can bomb Iran for another five years, and the situation will not change as the president wants.
In my humble opinion, Iran will not be tempted by the "sweeteners" that Trump offers in exchange for a nuclear deal. Here, it is important to understand a few key points. Trump demands not only a complete abandonment of nuclear weapons and development by Iran but also the absence of fees for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, he offers the lifting of oil sanctions, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and some investments. However, it is clear that Iran will gain much more money if it controls the strait itself and charges every vessel passing through. As for nuclear weapons, that is a principled issue, as I have mentioned many times.
In essence, Trump has nothing to offer Iran in exchange for complying with his own ultimatums. It is unlikely that the American president anticipated a turn of events in which he would have to ask Tehran to make an agreement. Trump clearly hoped to conduct a military operation similar to that in Venezuela, but something went wrong. And now the ball is in Tehran's court, and they are playing it exceptionally well.
In my view, Iran will do everything to keep the conflict in the Middle East ongoing for as long as possible. Tehran is willing to make only minor concessions that do not touch the key issues of the dispute. These concessions will not satisfy Trump, but he cannot back down either. Thus, we are left with the options of fighting or maintaining the status quo in the conflict.
Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within a bullish section of the trend, while in a more short-term view, it is within a bearish section of the trend. In my opinion, now is a good time to try forming long positions, although the instrument may drop to the 13 figure within wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often surprises, so I would already start adjusting for longs.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become quite complex. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, while EUR/USD may have constructed five waves. Thus, the British pound may build another wave down, just like the euro, but this wave may be the second within a new bullish section of the trend. Therefore, there will be divergence in the wave structures of the euro and the pound, but it will be insignificant and minor. Based on this, I expect a pullback soon, followed by the formation of a new bullish section of the trend, with initial targets around the 37-38 level.
