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08.04.2026 04:05 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair showed no interesting movements on Tuesday. In the morning session, there was a slight increase, followed by a small decline in the afternoon. The British pound failed to hold above a critical line, so there is currently no talk of a trend change according to the Ichimoku indicator. In fact, there is no clear trend, as the market reacts solely to geopolitical events, ignoring everything else. On Tuesday, there were no noteworthy reports from the UK, and the U.S. durable goods orders report, as usual, was ignored by the market.
Overall, the fate of the British pound hangs by a thread. While the euro has managed to weather the geopolitical crisis and stabilize, the pound could slip lower at any time. Today, Donald Trump may order another bombing of Iran, which would inevitably provoke a strong response against U.S. allies in the Middle East. If a new escalation occurs, the market may resume buying the U.S. dollar. It is much easier for the dollar to resist the British pound than the euro.
From a technical perspective, the hourly time frame indicates a downward trend, but any trend at this moment is a formality. The movements of the pair are random and solely dependent on geopolitical factors. The area between 1.3179 and 1.3187 keeps the pair teetering on the edge, but new events in the Middle East may provoke another collapse.
On the 5-minute time frame yesterday, four trading signals were generated. During the European trading session, the pair broke through the Kijun-sen line and moved up about 20 pips (which allowed a Stop Loss to be set to breakeven) before dropping back below the critical line. During the American session, two more sell signals were generated in the form of bounces from the critical line. These signals also did not prompt significant moves downward.
COT reports for the British pound show that, in recent years, sentiment among commercial traders has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are often near the zero mark. Currently, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders still dominating with... sales. However, considering the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for risk currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.
In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, as shown in the weekly time frame (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. However, geopolitical factors are now at the forefront, providing strong support for the U.S. currency. According to the most recent COT report (as of March 31), the "Non-commercial" group opened 4,800 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 5,700 contracts over the week.
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a new downward trend, which can be canceled at any moment. The market remains closely focused on events in the Middle East, which drive 90% of its movements. If there are no geopolitical news items, the market prefers to wait for them in a calm trading mode.
For April 8, we identify the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3319) and Kijun-sen (1.3261) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the stop-loss order to breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Wednesday, there are no important events scheduled in the UK, while in the U.S., the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting will be published, which is unlikely to interest anyone right now. Unfortunately, the market continues to ignore virtually all macroeconomic data, and once again, it will be waiting for a resolution between Iran and the U.S. Thus, the pair could move in either direction at any time.
Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3179-1.3187 if the price bounces from the critical line. Long positions can be opened targeting the Senkou Span B if the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line.
